Publication 6186: SOI Tax Stats - Calendar Year Projections

Publication 6186, also known as Calendar Year Return Projections for the United States and IRS Campuses, is an annual report published by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Statistics of Income (SOI) office. This report provides multi-year forecasts on the number of tax returns expected to be filed with the IRS for a specific calendar year.

What Information Does Publication 6186 Include?

Publication 6186 offers a wealth of detailed information on tax return projections, including:

A. Return Type Projections: The publication offers detailed projections for various tax return categories, including:

  1. Individual income tax returns (Forms 1040, 1040A, 1040EZ, etc.)
  2. Business tax returns (Forms 1120, 941, etc.)
  3. Tax-exempt organization returns (Forms 990, etc.)

B. Filing Method: Projections are further broken down by filing method - paper versus electronic filing.

C. Geographic Distribution: The report includes projections by IRS processing campus location, offering insights into regional filing trends.

D. Examination Classes: Publication 6186 also presents projections for the number of returns to be filed by IRS examination classes.

What are Some Key Takeaways from the Latest Edition (2023-2030)?

A. The trend of electronic filing continues to rise. The 2023 edition projects the share of electronically filed returns (individual, business, and tax-exempt) to reach 80.8% in CY 2023, up from 78.6% in CY 2022.

B. Individual income tax returns are projected to remain the dominant category, comprising over 60.6% of all tax filings.

C. The report provides valuable insights for IRS resource allocation based on anticipated workload distribution across different processing centers and examination classes.

How often is Publication 6186 updated?

Publication 6186 is released annually, typically in December. The latest edition reflects projections for the upcoming calendar years.

Where can I find Publication 6186?

You can download the latest Publication 6186 attached below.

How accurate are the projections in Publication 6186?

The SOI office employs sophisticated statistical methods and historical filing data to generate these projections. While not a guarantee of future filing activity, they offer a valuable tool for informed decision making.

How does Publication 6186 differ from IRS Data Book (Publication 55B)?

Publication 55B, the IRS Data Book, provides historical data on various tax return statistics, including the number of returns filed by type, income level, and other factors. Publication 6186, on the other hand, focuses on future projections and offers a forward-looking perspective.